Technology is outpacing the impact of customs tariffs: global trade is accelerating, and globalization is reaching a new record high

The artificial intelligence boom has become a powerful driver of global trade, offsetting the effects of tariffs and geopolitical shocks, according to the latest edition of the DHL Globalization Tracker
The outlook for global trade has improved, with growth through 2029 projected to exceed the pace seen in the previous decade
East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest trade growth in the first five months of 2026, followed by Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa
Trade between the U.S. and China has declined significantly
The level of globalization has reached a new record of 25.8%

Bucharest 2026: The global race to develop the infrastructure needed for artificial intelligence is providing a strong boost to world trade, against a backdrop of rising tariffs and geopolitical conflicts.

This is one of the main conclusions of the latest edition of the DHL Globalization Tracker, released today by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business. Based on more than 30 million data points, the report analyzes international flows of goods, capital, information, and people, offering one of the most comprehensive perspectives on the evolution of globalization.

This is the first edition published under the new name DHL Globalization Tracker. Previously, the report was known as the “DHL Global Connectedness Tracker.”

AI Infrastructure Development Drives Global Trade

The report shows that global trade in goods grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any other half-year period over the past 15 years, with the exception of the exceptional rebound following the COVID-19 pandemic.

One of the main factors driving this trend was high demand for goods needed to develop artificial intelligence infrastructure, such as semiconductors and data transmission equipment. According to analyses by the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the OECD, trade in goods that facilitate AI development accounted for 42% of the growth in goods trade in 2025, and this share reached 76% in the first quarter of 2026.

“The most important driver of global trade today is artificial intelligence—not tariffs,” said John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express. “Every AI application ultimately depends on logistics. The chips, network equipment, and numerous other products that underpin this technology must reach the right place at the right time. DHL connects the companies and markets that underpin these complex supply chains. Whenever innovation generates new trade flows, our global network helps keep them moving.”

The global effects of the conflict in Iran and customs tariffs on world trade remain limited

At the same time, the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted key trade routes. However, the effects have remained concentrated in certain areas. Economies dependent on this route have been particularly affected. For example, trade volume fell by 37% in Saudi Arabia and by 7% in the United Arab Emirates in the first five months of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025.

Trade policies were another source of pressure. U.S. tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, but their impact on global trade was limited.

One reason is that the U.S. accounted for only 13% of global imports in recent years, and about half of those imports were exempt from the tariff increases starting in August 2026. Another reason is that most countries have refrained from adopting broad retaliatory measures. Instead, many of them have stepped up their efforts to gain access to alternative markets through new trade agreements.

The outlook for global trade has improved, despite recent shocks Global trade in goods is projected to grow by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029. This pace would be significantly faster than the 2.7% recorded in the previous decade.

“It is not only surprising that global trade has continued to grow despite new tariffs and the war in Iran,” said Prof. Steven A. Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management. “The outlook is now better than it was before either of these two situations arose. This reminds us to look beyond the most visible disruptions and understand the deeper reasons why trade remains so resilient. The boom in trade driven by artificial intelligence highlights the demand for goods and services that can only be efficiently provided when specialized producers collaborate across borders. It also shows how companies are constantly adapting to keep trade moving despite disruptions and changes in trade policy.”

East Asia and the Pacific See Strongest Trade Growth

Of all the regions analyzed, East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest trade growth. The value of trade in the region increased by 24% in the first five months of 2026, compared with the same period in 2025. Europe followed with a 12% increase, and Sub-Saharan Africa with 11%.

East Asia and the Pacific not only recorded the strongest growth but also increased their share of intraregional trade. This share rose from 57% in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of 2026. Strong Asian supply chains, which support the development of AI infrastructure, contributed to this trend.

A marked decoupling between the U.S. and China, but no global split

One of the most significant changes in international trade flows is the weakening of ties between the U.S. and China. However, the global impact remains surprisingly limited.

For example, trade between the U.S. and China accounted for 3.5% of global trade at its peak in 2015, before falling to just 1.6% in the first five months of 2026. The share of international investment by U.S. and Chinese companies is even smaller—less than 1%. At the same time, the U.S.’s key allies have largely maintained their economic ties with China. These findings call into question the notion that reducing interdependence between the U.S. and China would lead to the division of the global economy into rival blocs.

A closer analysis also shows that direct trade data underestimates U.S. dependence on China. Goods imported into the U.S. from other countries contain an increasing number of materials and components originating in China. When these indirect imports are taken into account, U.S. dependence on China declined only marginally through 2024, the most recent year for which data is available.

Globalization Reaches a New Record

Beyond trade and investment patterns, the report tracks the broader evolution of globalization based on international flows of goods, capital, information, and people. Globalization is measured on a scale from 0%—where there are no cross-border flows—to 100%, when borders and distance have no impact. In 2025, the level of globalization reached a record high of 25.8%, driven in part by trade and investment related to artificial intelligence.

All four categories of flows contributed to this new record, recording higher levels of internationalization. Information flows remain the most globalized, followed by capital and trade flows. People flows remain the least globalized category.

DHL Globalization Tracker

The DHL Globalization Tracker is a concise report, accompanied by an interactive website, that provides regular updates on the evolution of globalization and world trade. It complements the renowned DHL Globalization Report, published periodically since 2011.

Drawing on data from more than 25 public, private, and academic sources, the Tracker analyzes over 30 million data points on international flows of goods, capital, information, and people. The report includes interactive charts that allow users to easily explore trends at the regional level, by geopolitical alignment, and for individual countries. The data and charts can also be downloaded for offline use.

The DHL Globalization Tracker is an initiative of DHL and is developed by Prof. Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian of the New York University Stern School of Business. The report and additional information are available at dhl.com/globalization.

Note: The DHL Globalization Tracker and the DHL Globalization Report were previously known as the “DHL Global Connectedness Tracker” and the “DHL Global Connectedness Report,” respectively. The new names more directly reflect the research’s focus. The scope of analysis and underlying methodology remain unchanged, ensuring continuity with previous editions.

At a Glance: The October 2026 Edition of the DHL Globalization Tracker

What is the report’s main conclusion?

The global boom in artificial intelligence is providing a strong boost to world trade, despite higher tariffs and geopolitical conflicts. Global trade in goods grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any other half-year over the past 15 years, with the exception of the exceptional rebound following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Beyond trade, the report tracks the broader evolution of globalization based on international flows of goods, capital, information, and people. In 2025, globalization reached a record high of 25.8%. The report measures this level on a scale from 0%—no cross-border flows—to 100%—when borders and distance have no impact. All four types of flows contributed to this record high, becoming increasingly international.

What is the outlook for global trade?

The outlook has improved. Global trade in goods is projected to grow by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029, significantly above the annual rate of 2.7% recorded in the previous decade.

It is important to note that current estimates are more optimistic than those made before the tariff hikes imposed by the U.S. in 2025–2026 and the war in Iran. This suggests that the impact of recent shocks on the global economy has been less severe than anticipated.

How Have Tariffs and Geopolitical Conflicts Affected Global Trade?

Tariffs and geopolitical conflicts continue to pose risks and cause disruptions. However, their overall impact on global trade has been limited.

The war in Iran has affected key shipping routes and particularly hit economies dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, but the effects have remained largely localized. U.S. tariffs have risen to their highest levels in decades, but the U.S. accounted for only 13% of global imports in recent years, and about half of U.S. imports were exempt from the tariff increases as of August 2026. Furthermore, many countries have avoided widespread retaliatory measures and have instead expanded their trade relations with alternative markets. As a result, global trade has continued to grow.

Where is trade growing the fastest?

East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest trade growth of all regions. Trade volume increased by 24% in the first five months of 2026, compared with the same period in 2025. Europe followed with 12%, and Sub-Saharan Africa with 11%. East Asia and the Pacific not only recorded the strongest growth but also increased the share of intra-regional trade. This share rose from 57% in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of 2026. Asian supply chains supporting the artificial intelligence boom contributed to this trend.

Is the economic decoupling between the U.S. and China dividing the global economy into rival blocs?

No, at least not yet. The U.S. and China have significantly reduced their direct economic ties over the past decade, but this has not led to a broader fragmentation of the global economy. The US’s main allies have largely maintained their economic ties with China. Another reason is the surprisingly small share of direct US-China trade in the global economy. Trade between the two countries accounted for 3.5% of global trade in goods at its peak in 2015, before falling to 1.6% in the first five months of 2026. The share of the U.S. and China in international corporate investment is even smaller—less than 1%.

Has the U.S. Become Less Dependent on China?

Direct trade between the two countries has declined significantly, but the situation is more complex when supply chains are taken into account.

Goods imported into the U.S. from third countries contain an increasing number of materials and components sourced from China. If these indirect imports are also included, U.S. dependence on China has declined only marginally through 2024.

Should companies rethink their supply chains to increase their resilience? For business leaders, the report recommends preparing for potential disruptions without giving up the advantages offered by engagement in international markets.

Although certain economies, industries, or trade routes may continue to face significant risks, global flows remain strong overall. Therefore, decisions such as relocating production should take into account both the need for supply chain resilience and the benefits of market access and an international presence.

Companies that withdraw from international markets while their competitors continue to operate globally risk weakening their competitive position.