Globalization holds firm at a record level, while the U.S. and China continue to decouple – DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026

Despite geopolitical tensions and growing uncertainties, countries largely maintain trade and investment relations with traditional partners.
Record trade distances, AI-driven trade and resilient cross-border flows paint a surprisingly robust picture of globalization.
US-China trade fell to 2.0% of world trade from 2.7% in 2024.
Singapore is the most globalized country in the world, with Europe leading the regional rankings.
Average trade growth to 2029 is projected to be similar to the last decade.

Bucharest, March 11, 2026: Globalization remains at an all-time high - despite escalating geopolitical tensions, rising US tariffs and unprecedented uncertainty about future trade policies. This is one of the key findings of the DHL Global Connectedness 2026 Report, published by DHL and New York University Stern School of Business. Based on more than 9 million data points tracking international flows of trade, capital, information and people, the report provides the most comprehensive picture of globalization available.

Globalization has remained stable since 2022

The report measures globalization on a scale from 0% (no cross-border flows) to 100% (borders and distance have no impact). The level of globalization worldwide was 25% in 2025, matching the record reached in 2022.

"Globalization is holding its ground - and that says a lot about its value," said John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express. "From alleviating precarious financial situations to combating climate change, the world's biggest challenges can only be solved by thinking globally. The DHL Global Connectedness report shows that countries and companies are not retreating behind national borders. This is good news. DHL strengthens global ties by connecting markets, companies and people so they can adapt, diversify and capitalize on new opportunities - even in times of uncertainty."

At the same time, the current level of 25% shows how far the world is from full globalization. In many areas, international flows could increase significantly in the absence of economic policy constraints.

The AI boom and the rush to avoid tariff hikes fueled trade in 2025

Global trade grew faster in 2025 than in any year after 2017, excluding the volatile period of the Covid-19 pandemic. US importers accelerated shipments early in the year to avoid tariff hikes. Subsequently, US imports fell below the previous year's levels, but China's rising exports to other markets helped maintain overall trade volumes. Trade in AI-related goods exploded as countries and companies rushed to build AI infrastructure. According to the World Trade Organization, AI-related products accounted for 42% of the growth in goods trade in the first three quarters of 2025.

Trade outlook: growth continues, even with higher tariffs

Looking ahead, recent increases in US tariffs are expected to slow trade growth slightly in 2026 - but not stop it. Global trade in goods is projected to grow by an average of 2.6% per year through 2029, roughly in line with the trend over the past decade. One reason trade may continue to grow despite US tariffs is that most trade does not involve the US. In 2025, only 13% of global imports went to the US and 9% of exports came from the US. In addition, many countries are negotiating new trade agreements to secure access to alternative markets.

Information flows face barriers, people flows reach new highs

Beyond trade, the report highlights different developments in other international flows:  Capital: There is no general trend of investment moving from foreign to domestic markets. Multinational companies continue to realize near-record shares of sales in foreign markets. Although announced greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) declined in 2025, total FDI inflows increased and cross-border M&A activity remained robust.  Information: Over the past two decades, information flows have generated the largest gains from globalization. Since 2021, however, their growth has slowed and become more volatile. Geopolitical tensions and restrictions on data flows could significantly limit information globalization.  People: After the collapse during the Covid-19 pandemic, international mobility has fully recovered. Latest data show that international departures, student mobility and migration are at record levels.

Singapore, the most globalized country

In the global country rankings, Singapore remains the world's most globalized economy, followed by Luxembourg and the Netherlands. Regionally, Europe is the most globalized region, followed by North America and the Middle East and North Africa. The United Kingdom has the most widespread international flows, while the United Arab Emirates has seen the largest increase in the level of globalization since 2001. US-China tensions affect only a small share of global flows The report shows that economic ties between the US and China continue to weaken. But overall, the share of these ties is relatively small. Trade between the two economies accounted for 3.6% of world trade at its peak in 2015, but fell to 2.7% in 2024 and just 2.0% in the first three quarters of 2025. The share of international investment between the two economies is even lower - below 1% in 2025.

A division of the world into rival blocs is not emerging

Although the US and China are drifting apart economically, most countries continue to work with traditional partners. Over the past decade, only 4-6% of global goods trade, greenfield investment and cross-border mergers and acquisitions have moved from geopolitical rivals to other destinations. In many cases, these flows have been to countries with more flexible geopolitical positions, such as India and Vietnam. "Political discourse about globalization is much more volatile than actual flows between countries," said Professor Steven A. Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern. "Global trade patterns have changed more in 2025 than in a typical year, but less than in other recent crisis periods, such as the start of the war in Ukraine. The risks to globalization are real, but so is the resilience of global flows."

Record trade distances

Despite fears that the global economy would regionalize, the data shows otherwise. In 2025, traded goods traveled the longest average distance ever recorded at 5,010 kilometers. The average distance for greenfield FDI projects also rose to a new record of 6,250 kilometers. Increasing distances indicate that economic relations remain global, not regional. Predictions of a massive shift from global to regional business have not materialized - at least so far.

About the DHL Global Connectedness Report

Regularly published since 2011, the DHL Global Connectedness Report provides a clear, data-driven picture of the evolution of globalization, analyzing 14 types of international flows - of trade, capital, information and people. The 2026 edition is based on over 9 million data points. The report assesses global connectedness for 180 countries, which together account for 99.6% of the world's GDP and 99.0% of the global population. It also includes 180 country profiles, each on a single page, summarizing how each economy is integrated into global flows. The report was commissioned by DHL and is authored by Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian of the New York University Stern School of Business.